Stigma? What Stigma? A Contribution to the Debate on Financial Market Effects of IMF Lending

Beatrice Scheubel, Andrea Tafuro, Benjamin Vonessen

Research output: Working paperResearch

Abstract

In the policy debate on the effectiveness of the Global Financial Safety Net, concerns have been raised that expectations of adverse effects of IMF programmes may deter countries from asking for an IMF programme when they need one, a form of ‘IMF stigma’. We explore the existence of IMF financial market stigma using monthly data by estimating how and to which extent adverse market reactions to a programme materialise and how past experience with adverse market reactions affects subsequent IMF programme participation. Our results, derived with event history techniques and propensity score matching, indicate no role for ‘IMF stigma’ stemming from the fear of adverse market movements. Instead, we find evidence of ‘IMF recidivism’ driven by adverse selection and IMF conditionality.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationFrankfurt am Main
PublisherEuropean Central Bank
Number of pages68
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2018
Externally publishedYes
SeriesEuropean Central Bank. Working Papers (Online)
Number2198
ISSN1725-2806

Keywords

  • Capital flows
  • IMF conditionality
  • IMF recidivism
  • Global financial safety net
  • Asian crisis
  • Treasury bill rates

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