Overproduction, Aggregate Accounting Performance, and Gross Domestic Product

This paper explores possible links between overproduction and future gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Using a measure of economywide overproduction that captures firms’ real earnings management (REM) incentives, we find that REM-driven overproduction has a negative moderating effect on the positive association between growth in aggregate accounting performance and one-quarter-ahead GDP growth documented in the literature. We also find that macro forecasters do not fully incorporate this effect into their forecasts. Our findings contribute primarily to the literature that links aggregate accounting information to GDP growth.