Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications

Filip Rozsypal, Kathrin Schlafmann

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Abstract

Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the implications of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative model to match the joint distribution of liquid assets and income. Second, the bias alters the distribution of marginal propensities to consume which makes government stimulus policies less effective.
Original languageEnglish
JournalAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Volume15
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)331-371
Number of pages41
ISSN1945-7707
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2023

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