Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model

Xavier Brusset, Morteza Davari*, Aseem Kinra, Davide La Torre

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review


As the COVID pandemic shows, infection spreads widely across regions, impacting economic activity in unforeseen ways. We represent here how the geographic spread of the pandemic, by reducing the workers’ participation to economic life, undermines the ability of firms and as a result the entire supply networks to satisfy customers’ demands. We model the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection on population, transport networks, facilities and population flows. The mathematical models will enable prospective analyses to be performed reliably. Such models will be used in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on both populations and supply chain activities in case of future pandemics. The outcome should be useful tools for policymakers and managers. Results from this research will help in understanding the impact and the spread of a pandemic in a particular region and on supply chains. The data will be from European regions and the expected models will have validity in Europe.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021 : Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV
EditorsAlexandre Dolgui, Alain Bernard, David Lemoine, Gregor von Cieminski, David Romero
Number of pages10
Place of PublicationCham
Publication date2021
ISBN (Print)9783030859091
ISBN (Electronic)9783030859107
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Externally publishedYes
EventIFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021 - Nantes, France
Duration: 5 Sept 20219 Sept 2021


ConferenceIFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021
Internet address
SeriesIFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology


  • Disruption
  • Graph theory
  • Network evaluation
  • Propagation
  • Ripple effect
  • Spatial dynamics

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