Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model

Xavier Brusset; Morteza Davari; Aseem Kinra; Davide La Torre

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1

Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model

Xavier Brusset, Morteza Davari^*, Aseem Kinra, Davide La Torre

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

Abstract

As the COVID pandemic shows, infection spreads widely across regions, impacting economic activity in unforeseen ways. We represent here how the geographic spread of the pandemic, by reducing the workers’ participation to economic life, undermines the ability of firms and as a result the entire supply networks to satisfy customers’ demands. We model the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection on population, transport networks, facilities and population flows. The mathematical models will enable prospective analyses to be performed reliably. Such models will be used in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on both populations and supply chain activities in case of future pandemics. The outcome should be useful tools for policymakers and managers. Results from this research will help in understanding the impact and the spread of a pandemic in a particular region and on supply chains. The data will be from European regions and the expected models will have validity in Europe.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021 : Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV
Editors	Alexandre Dolgui, Alain Bernard, David Lemoine, Gregor von Cieminski, David Romero
Number of pages	10
Place of Publication	Cham
Publisher	Springer
Publication date	2021
Pages	3-12
ISBN (Print)	9783030859091
ISBN (Electronic)	9783030859107
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1
Publication status	Published - 2021
Externally published	Yes
Event	IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021 - Nantes, France Duration: 5 Sept 2021 → 9 Sept 2021 https://www.apms-conference.org/past-conferences/apms-2021/

Conference

Conference	IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021
Country/Territory	France
City	Nantes
Period	05/09/2021 → 09/09/2021
Internet address	https://www.apms-conference.org/past-conferences/apms-2021/

Series	IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Volume	633
ISSN	1868-4238

Keywords

Disruption
Graph theory
Network evaluation
Propagation
Ripple effect
Spatial dynamics

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1Licence: Unspecified

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Cite this

Brusset, X., Davari, M., Kinra, A., & Torre, D. L. (2021). Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model. In A. Dolgui, A. Bernard, D. Lemoine, G. von Cieminski, & D. Romero (Eds.), Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021: Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV (pp. 3-12). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1

Brusset, Xavier ; Davari, Morteza ; Kinra, Aseem et al. / Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model. Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021: Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV. editor / Alexandre Dolgui ; Alain Bernard ; David Lemoine ; Gregor von Cieminski ; David Romero. Cham : Springer, 2021. pp. 3-12 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 633).

@inproceedings{9269a8856f6349759f6a1fa64ccd7a6c,

title = "Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model",

abstract = "As the COVID pandemic shows, infection spreads widely across regions, impacting economic activity in unforeseen ways. We represent here how the geographic spread of the pandemic, by reducing the workers{\textquoteright} participation to economic life, undermines the ability of firms and as a result the entire supply networks to satisfy customers{\textquoteright} demands. We model the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection on population, transport networks, facilities and population flows. The mathematical models will enable prospective analyses to be performed reliably. Such models will be used in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on both populations and supply chain activities in case of future pandemics. The outcome should be useful tools for policymakers and managers. Results from this research will help in understanding the impact and the spread of a pandemic in a particular region and on supply chains. The data will be from European regions and the expected models will have validity in Europe.",

keywords = "Disruption, Graph theory, Network evaluation, Propagation, Ripple effect, Spatial dynamics, Spatial dynamics, Ripple effect, Propagation, Disruption, Graph theory, Network evaluation",

author = "Xavier Brusset and Morteza Davari and Aseem Kinra and Torre, {Davide La}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783030859091",

series = "IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology",

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editor = "Alexandre Dolgui and Alain Bernard and David Lemoine and {von Cieminski}, Gregor and David Romero",

booktitle = "Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021",

address = "Germany",

note = "IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021, APMS2011 ; Conference date: 05-09-2021 Through 09-09-2021",

url = "https://www.apms-conference.org/past-conferences/apms-2021/",

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Brusset, X, Davari, M, Kinra, A & Torre, DL 2021, Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model. in A Dolgui, A Bernard, D Lemoine, G von Cieminski & D Romero (eds), Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021: Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV. Springer, Cham, IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol. 633, pp. 3-12, IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021, Nantes, France, 05/09/2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1

Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model. / Brusset, Xavier; Davari, Morteza; Kinra, Aseem et al.
Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021: Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV. ed. / Alexandre Dolgui; Alain Bernard; David Lemoine; Gregor von Cieminski; David Romero. Cham: Springer, 2021. p. 3-12 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 633).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model

AU - Brusset, Xavier

AU - Davari, Morteza

AU - Kinra, Aseem

AU - Torre, Davide La

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - As the COVID pandemic shows, infection spreads widely across regions, impacting economic activity in unforeseen ways. We represent here how the geographic spread of the pandemic, by reducing the workers’ participation to economic life, undermines the ability of firms and as a result the entire supply networks to satisfy customers’ demands. We model the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection on population, transport networks, facilities and population flows. The mathematical models will enable prospective analyses to be performed reliably. Such models will be used in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on both populations and supply chain activities in case of future pandemics. The outcome should be useful tools for policymakers and managers. Results from this research will help in understanding the impact and the spread of a pandemic in a particular region and on supply chains. The data will be from European regions and the expected models will have validity in Europe.

AB - As the COVID pandemic shows, infection spreads widely across regions, impacting economic activity in unforeseen ways. We represent here how the geographic spread of the pandemic, by reducing the workers’ participation to economic life, undermines the ability of firms and as a result the entire supply networks to satisfy customers’ demands. We model the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection on population, transport networks, facilities and population flows. The mathematical models will enable prospective analyses to be performed reliably. Such models will be used in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on both populations and supply chain activities in case of future pandemics. The outcome should be useful tools for policymakers and managers. Results from this research will help in understanding the impact and the spread of a pandemic in a particular region and on supply chains. The data will be from European regions and the expected models will have validity in Europe.

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KW - Graph theory

KW - Network evaluation

KW - Propagation

KW - Ripple effect

KW - Spatial dynamics

KW - Ripple effect

KW - Propagation

KW - Disruption

KW - Graph theory

KW - Network evaluation

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DO - 10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1

M3 - Article in proceedings

AN - SCOPUS:85115226648

SN - 9783030859091

T3 - IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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BT - Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021

A2 - Dolgui, Alexandre

A2 - Bernard, Alain

A2 - Lemoine, David

A2 - von Cieminski, Gregor

A2 - Romero, David

PB - Springer

CY - Cham

T2 - IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021

Y2 - 5 September 2021 through 9 September 2021

ER -

Brusset X, Davari M, Kinra A, Torre DL. Modelling COVID-19 Ripple Effect and Global Supply Chain Productivity Impacts Using a Reaction-siffusion Time-space SIS Model. In Dolgui A, Bernard A, Lemoine D, von Cieminski G, Romero D, editors, Advances in Production Management Systems. APMS 2021: Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. Proceedings, Part IV. Cham: Springer. 2021. p. 3-12. (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 633). doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-85910-7_1