### Abstract

We consider a random utility extension of the fundamental Lucas (1978) equilibrium asset pricing model. The resulting structural model leads naturally to a likelihood function. We estimate the model using U.S. asset market data from 1871 to 2000, using both dividends and earnings as state variables. We find that current dividends do not forecast future utility shocks, whereas current utility shocks do forecast future dividends. The estimated structural model produces a sequence of predicted utility shocks which provide better forecasts of future long-horizon stock market returns than the classical dividend-price ratio.

Original language | English |
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Place of Publication | Frederiksberg |

Publisher | Institut for Finansiering, Copenhagen Business School |

Number of pages | 32 |

ISBN (Print) | 8790705831 |

Publication status | Published - 2004 |

Series | Working Papers / Department of Finance. Copenhagen Business School |
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Number | 2004-7 |

ISSN | 0903-0352 |

### Keywords

- Random utility
- Asset pricing
- Maximum likelihood
- Structural model
- Return predictability

## Cite this

Christensen, B. J., & Raahauge, P. (2004).

*Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model*. Institut for Finansiering, Copenhagen Business School. Working Papers / Department of Finance. Copenhagen Business School, No. 2004-7