How the Refugee Crisis Impacts the Decision Structure of Tourists: A Crosscountry Scenario Study

The current refugee crisis has broad ramifications for societies. In the domain of tourism, such socio-political or human-made disasters raise questions about security, but may also affect perceptions of a destination's openness and hospitality. This paper discusses the relative importance of security and openness in terms of destination image and the willingness to visit a place affected by the refugee crisis. In an online scenario study, we studied these effects and explored country differences for four different countries (Austria, Germany, UK and USA; N = 2612) in this regards. Our results show that the perceived security of a place becomes a stronger predictor for destination choice during a crisis. Yet, contrary to our assumption, a crisis decreases the importance of a place's perceived openness. Thus, our study raises doubts that the refugee crisis benefits tourism by providing an opportunity to show openness and hospitality – as some researchers and practitioners had hoped.