Future Maritime Trade Flows and Climate Change

This chapter examines the relationship between international trade, maritime transport, and climate change, focusing on the environmental and social challenges posed by the shipping industry. Maritime transport has been a cornerstone of globalization, facilitating economic development and connecting global markets. However, it has also contributed significantly to environmental degradation, including greenhouse gas emissions that account for about 2.5% of global emissions, alongside resource overuse and economic inequality.
The chapter reviews strategies for reducing the environmental impacts of maritime transport, such as energy efficiency improvements, the adoption of alternative fuels, and the development of supportive regulatory frameworks. It explores the implications of these strategies for trade flows, transport costs, and global economic systems. The analysis includes four potential future scenarios—Evolving Status Quo, Fragmented World, Green Growth, and Postgrowth Transition—that consider varying degrees of regulatory action, technological advancement, and shifts in global economic priorities.
The chapter looks into how decarbonization and sustainable practices can reshape maritime trade, highlighting the need for coordinated policies to balance climate action with economic and social considerations. It concludes with recommendations for policymakers and industry leaders to prepare for the changes that climate-focused strategies and, in general, a stronger focus on sustainability will bring to international shipping and trade.