Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane

Ziaul Haque Munim, Hans-Joachim Schramm

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.
This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.

Conference

ConferenceThe Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists. IAME 2016
Number24
CountryGermany
CityHamborg
Period23/08/201626/08/2016
OtherAnnual conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME)
Internet address

Bibliographical note

CBS Library does not have access to the material

Cite this

Munim, Z. H., & Schramm, H-J. (2016). Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane. Paper presented at The Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists. IAME 2016, Hamborg, Germany.
Munim, Ziaul Haque ; Schramm, Hans-Joachim. / Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane. Paper presented at The Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists. IAME 2016, Hamborg, Germany.22 p.
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Munim, ZH & Schramm, H-J 2016, 'Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane' Paper presented at, Hamborg, Germany, 23/08/2016 - 26/08/2016, .

Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane. / Munim, Ziaul Haque; Schramm, Hans-Joachim.

2016. Paper presented at The Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists. IAME 2016, Hamborg, Germany.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

TY - CONF

T1 - Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane

AU - Munim,Ziaul Haque

AU - Schramm,Hans-Joachim

N1 - CBS Library does not have access to the material

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.

AB - This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.

M3 - Paper

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Munim ZH, Schramm H-J. Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane. 2016. Paper presented at The Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists. IAME 2016, Hamborg, Germany.