Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

Iván Marinovic*, Marco Ottaviani

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingBook chapterResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationHandbook of Economic Forecasting
    Number of pages31
    Volume2
    PublisherElsevier
    Publication date2013
    EditionPart B
    Pages690-720
    ISBN (Print)9780444627315
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    SeriesHandbook of Economic Forecasting
    Volume2
    ISSN1574-0706

    Keywords

    • Bias
    • Exaggeration
    • Forecasting contest
    • Herding
    • Reputational cheap talk

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