Expected Term Structures

Andrea Buraschi, Ilaria Piatti, Paul Whelan

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review


We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support for heterogeneous belief economies generating time-varying risk premia via both a quantity and price of risk channel.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2017
Number of pages55
Publication statusPublished - 2017
EventSFS Cavalcade Asia-Pacific 2017 - PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Duration: 13 Dec 201715 Dec 2017


ConferenceSFS Cavalcade Asia-Pacific 2017
LocationPBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University
Internet address


  • Cross-section of beliefs
  • Bond risk premia
  • Expectation formation
  • Rational expectations

Cite this