Employing System Archetypes to Facilitate Decision-making in the Transition to Alternative Marine Fuels at the Port of Singapore

The maritime industry, responsible for 2.89% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, is at a pivotal point, driven by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) ambitious targets. The IMO aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 20% by 2030 and 70% by 2040, relative to 2008 levels. Additionally, the guidelines aim to decrease the carbon intensity of international shipping by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 2008, with a goal of achieving net-zero GHG emissions by around 2050 (IMO, 2023). Given the limitations of technological and operational improvement to achieve low carbon shipping, a transition from traditional marine fuels (TMF) such as low sulfur fuel oil and diesel, into alternative carbon-neutral or net-zero fuels, collectively referred to as alternative marine fuels (AMF) in this paper, including renewable methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia, is inevitable (Xing et al., 2021). In 2023, the Singapore bunker market, which comprises 36% of the global market with sales of 51.82 million tonnes, highlighted its crucial role in the shift towards alternative marine fuels (AMF) (Shaw Smith, 2023). However, significant challenges arise, particularly in updating the port’s infrastructure to accommodate AMF demand surges (MPA, 2022). Despite likely sufficient investment from the Singaporean government, our study uses a system thinking approach to highlight the need for timely and early strategic investments to mitigate delays in infrastructure and regulatory development. The use of systems thinking to comprehend the dynamics of the maritime industry has become increasingly popular, in areas such as port handling process, port economics, freight rates and other strategic policy problems (Oztanriseven et al., 2014). It is particularly useful for unravelling the supply and demand dynamics that confound modern maritime systems (Ng & Lam, 2011). However, its application in the transition to AMF has not yet been explored. Current literature on AMF focuses on evaluating their GHG reduction efficiencies and future economics but lacks research that considers the port, vessel, bunker supply and demand, environmental consequences as an integrated system from a higher-level perspective. Through our system dynamics model simulation, we integrate the system considering its internal interdependencies and feedbacks. By applying general system archetypes, we highlight potential consequences of inadequate bunker service capacity, such as prolonged vessel queuing times, and the subsequent need for the vessels to speed up to meet schedules (MPA, 2022). These issues compromise environmental goals and risk diverting business to competitive international ports potentially undermining Singapore’s status as a premier global refuelling hub (Lam et al., 2011). By anticipating barriers and recommending proactive infrastructure development, our analysis aims to ensure that the Port of Singapore can sustain its leadership in the maritime industry while advancing towards a sustainable, low-carbon future.