Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

Glenn W. Harrison; Jimmy Martínez-Correa; J. Todd Swarthout; Eric R. Ulm

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.027

Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

Glenn W. Harrison
, Jimmy Martínez-Correa
, J. Todd Swarthout
, Eric R. Ulm

Department of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment.

Original language	English
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	127
Pages (from-to)	68-71
Number of pages	4
ISSN	0165-1765
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.027
Publication status	Published - Feb 2015

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title = "Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries",

abstract = "We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment.",

keywords = "Subjective belief distributions, Risk attitudes, Experiments",

author = "Harrison, \{Glenn W.\} and Jimmy Mart{\'i}nez-Correa and Swarthout, \{J. Todd\} and Ulm, \{Eric R.\}",

year = "2015",

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language = "English",

volume = "127",

pages = "68--71",

journal = "Economics Letters",

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AU - Harrison, Glenn W.

AU - Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

AU - Swarthout, J. Todd

AU - Ulm, Eric R.

PY - 2015/2

Y1 - 2015/2

N2 - We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment.

AB - We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment.

KW - Subjective belief distributions

KW - Risk attitudes

KW - Experiments

U2 - 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.027

DO - 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.027

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0165-1765

VL - 127

SP - 68

EP - 71

JO - Economics Letters

JF - Economics Letters

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