Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

Glenn W. Harrison, Jimmy Martínez-Correa, J. Todd Swarthout

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Pages (from-to)128-140
Publication statusPublished - May 2014

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