@techreport{c3599d12378d4f9580f15ab23717d667,

title = "Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries",

abstract = "We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Harrison, Mart{\'i}nez-Correa and Swarthout [2013] found that the binary lottery procedure works robustly to induce risk neutrality when subjects are given one risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify.",

keywords = "Subjective Probability Elicitation, Binary Lottery Procedure, Experimental Economies, Risk Neutrality, Subjective Probability Elicitation, Binary Lottery Procedure, Experimental Economies, Risk Neutrality",

author = "Harrison, {Glenn W.} and Jimmy Mart{\'i}nez-Correa and Swarthout, {J. Todd}",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

series = "Working paper / Center for Economic Analysis of Risk (CEAR)",

publisher = "CEAR, Georgia State University",

number = "2012-09",

type = "WorkingPaper",

institution = "CEAR, Georgia State University",

}