Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

Glenn W. Harrison, Jimmy Martínez-Correa, J. Todd Swarthout

Research output: Working paperResearch


We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Harrison, Martínez-Correa and Swarthout [2013] found that the binary lottery procedure works robustly to induce risk neutrality when subjects are given one risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationAtlanta, GA
PublisherCEAR, Georgia State University
Number of pages50
Publication statusPublished - 2012
SeriesWorking paper / Center for Economic Analysis of Risk (CEAR)


  • Subjective Probability Elicitation
  • Binary Lottery Procedure
  • Experimental Economies
  • Risk Neutrality

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