Economic Policy Uncertainty, Consumer Confidence in Major Economies and Outbound Tourism to African Countries

Hassan F. Gholipour, Robin Nunkoo, Behzad Foroughi, Hassan Kalantari Daronkola

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Uncertainty, which is the only certain thing about the future, influences economic agents, their behaviours and economic activity. Debates and concerns about policy uncertainty have intensified following events such as the financial crisis, Brexit and more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence in a set of major economies on tourism flows to African countries. Using data over the period of 2005–2019 and applying panel difference generalized method of moments method, our results show that a positive change in consumer confidence in Canada, China, France, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom (UK) has favorable impact on tourism departures from these countries to 25 African countries. We also find that a positive change in uncertainty in Canada, Russia, Spain and the UK has negative effect on tourist departures from these countries to African countries. The implications of the results for tourism development in African countries are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
JournalTourism Economics
Number of pages16
ISSN1354-8166
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jan 2021

Bibliographical note

Epub ahead of print. Published online: 18. Januar 2021

Keywords

  • Africa
  • Consumer confidence
  • Panel data
  • Tourism
  • Uncertainty

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