Do Global COVOL and Geopolitical Risks Affect Clean Energy Prices? Evidence from Explainable Artificial Intelligence Models

Sami Ben Jabeur, Yassine Bakkar*, Oguzhan Cepni

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

We investigate the impact of global common volatility and geopolitical risks on clean energy prices. Our study utilizes daily data from January 1, 2001, to March 18, 2024. Using a new framework based on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods, our findings demonstrate that the COVOL index outperforms the geopolitical risk index in accurately predicting clean energy prices. Furthermore, the Extreme Trees algorithm shows superior performance compared to traditional regression techniques. Our findings indicate that XAI improves transparency, thereby making a substantial contribution to agile decision-making in predicting clean energy prices. Practitioners, including investors and portfolio managers, can enhance investment decisions and manage systemic risks by incorporating COVOL into their risk assessment and asset allocation models.
Original languageEnglish
Article number108112
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume141
Number of pages13
ISSN0140-9883
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2025

Bibliographical note

Published online: 03 December 2024.

Keywords

  • COVOL
  • Geopolitical risks
  • Global financial risk
  • Clean energy
  • Explainable artificial intelligence models

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