Assessing the Impact of Wind/PV Power Generation and Market Policies on Decentralized Hybrid Systems

In this paper, we offer a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of wind and photovoltaic power generation on decentralized hybrid systems. In particular, we focus on three performance measures of the energy system, namely reliability, costs, and efficiency. Most of the current studies focus either on forecasting the energy potential or assessing the expected economic viability of the hybrid system. However, our approach allows decision makers to investigate the impact of key design features and market policies on several levels of system performance metrics, as opposed to only the expected level. Therefore, we appropriately assess the inherent uncertainty and design options. First, we use linear and quantile regression models to estimate the wind speed and solar insolation. Then, we use different quantiles as an input for the hybrid system design to assess market policies (e.g., net metering). Finally, we shed light on the performance metrics of the energy system: reliability, economy, and efficiency. We illustrate our approach by using data from a city in Brazil and analyze the behavior of system’s key parameters. We close by suggesting possible implications for managing new technologies (e.g., smart metering) and policy design.