Affective Forecasting and Travel Decision-making: An Investigation in Times of a Pandemic

Marion Karl, Florian Kock, Brent W. Ritchie, Jana Gauss

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


People mentally simulate future events, visualise themselves in these events, and then make predictions about how they would feel. This process is referred to as affective forecasting. Tourism lends itself toward affective forecasting because holiday experiences are not tangible and difficult to judge upfront. The authors conceptualise and empirically examine the mental simulation and affective forecasting in tourist decision-making. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a proof of concept, they employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that affective forecasting can mitigate risk perceptions and travel decision-making in times of a pandemic. The findings highlight how affective forecasting can be leveraged to predict and change travel behaviour in the aftermath of pandemics, though implications reach beyond this context.
Original languageEnglish
Article number103139
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Number of pages14
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021


  • Affective forecasting
  • Prospection
  • Episodic future thinking
  • Travel decision-making
  • COVID-19 threat scale
  • Coronavirus/COVID-19

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