### Abstract

Original language | English |
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Place of Publication | København |

Number of pages | 8 |

Publication status | Published - 2006 |

### Cite this

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**A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial.** / Lando, Henrik.

Research output: Working paper › Research

TY - UNPB

T1 - A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial

AU - Lando, Henrik

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - This article derives key variables in the analysis of standards of proof in criminal law from basic conditional probabilities. The variables derived are the probability of correct and wrongful conviction, the expected sanction and society's incarceration costs, while the basic conditional probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i). The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating.

AB - This article derives key variables in the analysis of standards of proof in criminal law from basic conditional probabilities. The variables derived are the probability of correct and wrongful conviction, the expected sanction and society's incarceration costs, while the basic conditional probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i). The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating.

KW - x

KW - Probability of Correct and Wrongful Conviction, microfoundations

M3 - Working paper

BT - A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial

CY - København

ER -