Den private investor under (politisk) usikkerhed: Et studie af investoradfærd under politisk usikkerhed. Skabt gennem Reddit, interviews og sentimentanalyse.

Abstract

Political uncertainty has become a major force in shaping investor sentiment and behaviour, especially in times of global tension and institutional volatility. Yet little is known about how private investors react to such uncertainty in real-time settings. This thesis investigates how political events, with a particular focus on Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign and ensuing trade policy conflicts, affect private investors’ decision-making. The central research question is: How does political uncertainty influence investor behaviour, and through which cognitive and social mechanisms is this expressed? To explore this, the study adopts a mixed-methods design. Qualitative insights are gathered through ten semi-structured interviews with private investors from both Europe and the United States. These are supplemented by netnographic observation of Reddit investor communities and a quantitative sentiment analysis of social media discourse, cross-referenced with the CNN Fear & Greed Index. The findings reveal that political uncertainty substantially alters investor behaviour by triggering cognitive biases and emotional reactivity. Participants often relied on intuitive and emotionally charged responses (System 1 thinking) during periods of heightened uncertainty, rather than engaging in deliberate analysis (System 2). Key behavioural patterns include loss aversion, herding, and confirmation bias. In particular, negative political news fueled disproportionate fears of losses and led investors to imitate each other, reinforcing market swings. Social media sentiment followed similar trajectories as market-based sentiment indices, indicating that collective mood shifts and symbolic narratives play a crucial role in shaping financial outcomes. The study concludes that political shocks propagate through both psychological and social channels, challenging assumptions of market efficiency and offering new perspectives for behavioural finance and investor risk management.