De hurtigste gazeller på savannen: En undersøgelse om, hvorvidt de gazellevirksomheder, der vinder flere kåringer, trodser teorien om regression to the mean?

Abstrakt

The so-called gazelles are often mentioned as some of the most successful high-growth firms in Den- mark. A recent study from 2021, however showed that after the gazelles have been awarded, their growth rates decline to the same level as other companies in their industry. This thesis wants to further investigate this, and furthermore investigate what may differentiate the gazelles with an immediately declining growth rate after the award, and those gazelles who maintain a higher growth rate longer. To investigate this, the gazelles are divided into two groups: The sprinters and the marathon runners. The sprinters are gazelles that are only awarded once, whereas the marathon runners are gazelles, who have won at least three awards in a row. Six profound hypotheses are put forward to analyze the dif- ference between the two gazelle groups. The hypotheses are analyzed through a panel data analysis method with data from 1.140.180 Danish financial statements from 1998-2021. The analysis unambig- uously finds that gazelles before being awarded, overall are of smaller size and younger age compared to the rest of the population. The analysis and its hypotheses also reveal that the marathon runners’ (just like the sprinters) growth rates fall after their last award toward the same levels as their peers. This clearly indicates that luck and chance have an impact as the reason for the high growth. The anal- ysis also finds a correlation between the growth rates, profitability, and paid-out dividend toward the likelihood of entering a high growth phase. When high profitability and a moderate paid-out dividend, will, everything else being equal, increase likelihood of entering a high growth phase. The analysis also suggests that gazelles, before their award, had more debt and a lower credit risk compared to their peers. However, the gazelles, despite their impressive performance, nevertheless tends over time to regress toward mean, and eventually ends up at the same growth levels as their peers.