The Asymmetry of Reintegration: Power, Trust, and Economic Re-Entry Post-Sanctions

Abstract

This thesis investigates why some formerly sanctioned states achieve successful reintegration into the global economic system, while others remain persistently isolated. Using a comparative case study approach, it examines six countries, Germany, Japan, Vietnam, South Africa, Iran, and North Korea, to assess how strategic relevance, trust-building, institutional anchoring, and normative alignment shape post-sanctions reintegration trajectories.The analysis follows an abductive approach, combining structured comparison with typological mapping to identify causal patterns. It draws on a multi-theoretical framework, including Walt, Mearsheimer, Kydd, Fearon, and Finnemore & Sikkink, to analyse strategic alignment, trust dynamics, signalling, and norm diffusion. The study shows that reintegration is not a mechanical outcome of sanction relief, but a relational process shaped by perceptions of credibility, strategic utility, and institutional embedding, by external actors.The findings show that successful cases, such as Germany and Japan, combined high strategic value with robust institutional commitments and normative convergence. Intermediate cases like Vietnam and South Africa faced partial reintegration due to trust deficits or declining utility. Iran and North Korea, failing to sustain credible signals, broad economic relevance, or strategic sponsorship, remained excluded. The thesis further applies its analytical framework to the evolving case of post-war Russia, identifying significant reintegration barriers absent regime change, normative realignment, and institutional guarantees. Theoretically, the thesis reconceptualises reintegration as an asymmetric bargain in which sanctioned states exchange some autonomy for legitimacy and access. It concludes that durable reintegration depends not merely on compliance, but on sustained trust-building, clear strategic alignment, and on institutional guarantees that reduce the risk of reversal.