Fordele og ulemper ved prognoser anvendt til pensionsopsparing: Med fokus på anvendelsen af prognoserne

Abstract

This paper will examine the development of the Danish retirement system according to its forecast and the increasing importance of the forecasts for the everyday citizens. The society has changed, channeling an increasing amount, well over 2/3 of deposits to a new market-rate product, allowing the individual and the company accumulating the savings, to take bigger risks, in the assessment of each investment and the general assets under management. The change in environment, contributing to savings being channeled to riskier products, has increased the importance of risk assessment and the valuation of each decision for the individual. The increasing responsibility has forced individuals to be more aware of their retirement. They must now focus on their speculations about the future, which assumptions the forecasts are based on, and whether they agree on the assumptions and if not, which effects it has on their forecast. This thesis provides an analysis of the increasing responsibilities being left up to the citizens, and how this development has affected the accessible tools to assess their retirement savings. The tools are primarily focused on the available forecasts in the sector, and how the use of forecasts can be both convenient and inconvenient determined by the usage. the analysis has a predominantly comparative approach. Comparing actual investment positions, held by the biggest commercial pension company in Denmark versus a theoretical positioning of different asset classes. The theoretical portfolio will be constructed by the modern portfolio theory and hereby creating the efficient frontier under some constraints, making the analysis more realistic and beneficial for the thesis. The comparison will not only compare key figures, such as the portfolios sharpe ratio, volatility and expected rate of return. The comparison will furthermore be using the key figures in a Monte-Carlo simulation calculating a mean and forecasting the development and increase in the accumulated value of the savings over a ten-year period. Making the comparative analyses both more sophistical and easier to interpret. The paper will additionally be giving an estimation of the appropriate and inappropriate use of retirement forecasts. How it recommends employees and citizens to use the forecast, contributing to a more aligned savings conduct, in accordance with the individuals wishes, and their own thoughts of the risks in the future and the presumptions behind the calculations of the forecasts.