Værdiansættelse af virksomheder med kort track-record: En empirisk undersøgelse af praksis hos danske venture kapitalfonde, private equity og corporate finance samt opstilling af en best-practice model

Abstrakt

This Master Thesis focuses on valuation of companies with a short track-record. Based on our interest for the topic as well as a wish to contribute to limitation of the uncertainty embedded in the valuation of companies with a short track-record, we have carried out an analysis and set up a bestpractice model. Our analysis is based on 28 personal interviews with representatives from venture capital foundations, private equity foundations as well as corporate finance. Our research has shown that the practicians do not perceive the method of valuation as significantly different from the method applied to valuation of companies with a longer track-record. However, the practicians believe that estimation of inputs is more difficult compared to estimating inputs for companies with a longer track-record. Valuation models are widely used, and the DCF model is the most common approach to valuation of companies with a short track-record. In addition to this, multiples are also used frequently. The EVA model is rated third and real options are used least. The practicians often use more than a single model in order to control the value estimate. When estimating the inputs for the valuation models, the practicians primarily use strategic analysis followed by the use of benchmark companies. Historical financial reports are only rarely included. Furthermore, the practicians include qualitative analytical factors when generating the inputs for valuation. Our analysis has shown that the business plan is rated highest followed by dialogue with the management and the track-record of the management. The practicians furthermore apply strategic analysis models, and, among these, SWOT and Life Cycle Model are rated the highest. Based on a theoretical study of the valuation literature as well as our empirical study, we have established a best-practice model. We recommend that a valuation is based on the DCF-model. This should be backed up with a real option mindset and with multiples to control the value estimate. To generate inputs, we recommend a strategic analysis including PEST, Porters Five Forces, Value Chain Analysis and SWOT. We recommend that, among the possible qualitative analytical factors, the practicians need to analyze the budgets of the company, the business plan and the track record of the company as well as engage in dialogue with the management. We believe that applying our best-practice model will reduce the uncertainty of the value estimates when valuing companies with a short track-record.