Værdiansættelse og strategisk regnskabsanalyse af Tivoli A/S

Mike Steve Rasmussen

Studenteropgave: HD-afhandlinger


The purpose of this paper at CBS is to answer two main questions about the company Tivoli A/S.
• From an investors point of view, what is the value of Tivoli?
• What kind of factors could influence the value?
This written assignment is started with a strategic analysis to show the history of Tivoli, Tivoli’s strategy for the next couple of years and any internal and external impacts on Tivoli. It shows that Tivoli is a traditional brand in Denmark with a great location, that is both a strength and weakness to Tivoli. A weakness because they want to expand its surroundings and minimize the influence of the weather by expanding the business to other industries. It also shows that politics has a huge influence, and that the competition is hard in the entertainment industry. There are a lot of alternatives to Tivoli, like the cinema, Bakken, Zoo and so on.
I have also made are formulation analysis on the annual reports for2014to 2018. They show that Tivoli is improving the return of equity (ROE) to an acceptable level of10,56 %. It also shows that during the last five years, they have focused on cost control -and despite the hard competition, they have increased numbers of guests and the ongoing revenue.
To make a valuation of Tivoli, I have tried to predict the future budgets, based on the strategic analysis and the reformulated budget. I have taken a conservative approach and come up with a sales growth of 2,7%in the “terminal period”.
Afterwards, I have calculated WACC, by making some arguments and assumptions about the risk and expected owners return. I calculated WACC to 3,45 %.
By using the Free Cash Flow model FCFF, I could calculate the value of 1 stock in Tivoli to 1527DKK. This means that the current stock on the market is underpriced and should be bought. The price of one stock on the market was 632 DKK on the 30thof December 2013.
However, there is some uncertainty on the factors incl. WACC. BETA is a way of calculating the return to the owners, and during a sensitivity analysis, it shows that BETA has a big impact on how the value will end up. The lower the BETA, and therefore the risk, the higher value of the stock. Other factors are the shares of the equity and the debts, the addition of illiquid liquidity and the aforementioned assumptions of the sales growth.
Based on the factors and the calculated value of Tivoli, the assignment is completed.

UddannelserHD Regnskab og Økonomistyring, (HD uddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling
Antal sider66