Danske energihandelsselskabers ageren i et volatilt marked: En undersøgelse af det danske elmarked med udgangspunkt i Energikrisen 2022

Abstract

This thesis examines how Danish energy trading companies have adapted their risk management practices in response to the significant disruptions in the energy market following the 2022 energy crisis. The crisis did not result from a single event but rather from a convergence of market dynamics and geopolitical developments—most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent halt of Russian gas supplies, on which Europe was heavily dependent. These events exposed structural vulnerabilities in the energy market and highlighted the limitations of traditional risk models, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), which proved inadequate during extreme market conditions. The thesis finds that the 2022 energy crisis served as a catalyst for a re-evaluation of internal risk frameworks within energy trading firms. Companies responded by restructuring their risk organizations and at the same time increasingly supplementing VaR models with scenario-based analysis to better capture tail risks. Additionally, the crisis underscored the importance of close liquidity monitoring, as heightened collateral requirements in forward markets led to a shift toward shorter settlement periods and greater reliance on spot markets. Furthermore, the crisis accelerated the implementation of renewable energy sources as part of Europe’s ambition to reduce dependency on Russian gas. However, increased reliance on weather-dependent energy sources such as wind and solar introduces new forms of short-term volatility in electricity prices. While overall long-term production may stabilize, daily fluctuations are expected to increase—requiring market mechanisms and infrastructure to be capable of managing this variability. Energy trading companies are thus expected to play an increasingly central role in reallocating electricity production across bidding zones to ensure price stability. A well-developed grid will be essential to facilitate this transition. Ultimately, the future electricity market is projected to be more volatile, and the role of trading companies in smoothing price fluctuations will be more critical than ever. The specific outcome, however, will also depend on political priorities and external factors influencing the energy mix.