En strategisk vurdering af Carlsbergs ekspansions-potentiale i Kina – ud fra en scenarieanalytisk tilgang

Abstrakt

This master thesis deals with Carlsberg and their strategic positions in China. Carlsberg and their involvement in Asia will be described, so we will be able to make an analysis specifically on the Chinese beer market. Finally we make a valuation of the strategic positions we recommend for Carlsberg. Our analysis of Carlsberg and the value they can create in the Chinese market can be divided in the three phases. The first part of the analysis focuses on the strategic aspect. Both the brewery industry and the beer market in China are analyzed, using Porter's Five Forces and PESTEL. The conclusion of the strategic analysis shows that the market holds huge potential, but also that competition is incredibly fierce. The second part of the analysis is a scenario analysis, which acts as a link between the strategic analysis and the valuation. In the scenario analysis, the knowledge we have presented in the strategic analysis, will be summarized and evaluated in relation to future probabilities and earnings. This is also where we analyze the most optimal and plausible strategy, which we believe is to take over an existing brewery. We find that the Chongqing and Kingway brewery is the most likely investments opportunities. Furthermore we find the following two scenarios: 1. Market growth of 40% 2. Increased taxes on alcohol. Third and last part of the analysis is the actual valuation of the Chinese market for Carlsberg. Here we use the knowledge we have accumulated throughout this thesis, to value the market under the terms we found in the scenario analysis. We conclude that Kingway will be the best alternative of the two breweries. Under both the scenarios we find, that Kingway is undervalued and the opposite with Chongqing which is overrated.