Analyse af de teoretiske og praktiske problemstillinger som er til stede og opstår ved anvendelsen af rNPV og ROV i praksis til værdiansættelse af et medicinalprodukt i R&D-fasen med Genmab A/S som case virksomhed

Kasper Lundegaard Christensen & Rasmus Pedersen

Studenteropgave: Kandidatafhandlinger


This thesiswill investigate two different valuation methods, which is the Risk AdjustedNet Present Value referred to as rNPV and the Real Option Valuation called ROV.The rNPV method is a static valuation method based on cash flows, while ROV isfounded on real options. The main focus of this thesis is to analyze thetheoretical and practical issues that are present and arise from the use ofthese two specific valuation methods in practice for valuing a pharmaceuticalproduct in the R&D phase with Genmab A/S as case company. This perspectiveis interesting to explore as practitioners often use the rNPV method in practice,although this method does not include the strategic flexibility of the asset inthe valuation. For this reason, lots of theorists have written theoreticalarticles about real options as a method for valuation. However, these articlesdo not focus on the applicability of the real options as a valuation method,which may be one of the reasons why the method is not often used bypractitioners and rNPV still is the most used valuation method to valuingpharma projects. But which theoretical and practical issues arise, when the twomethod is used? For this reason, this thesis starts by pointing out therelevance of valuation as wells as the characteristics of the two methods.Thereafter, this thesis analyzes the theoretical issues, which are common tothe two model, where these theoretical issues are then analyzed specificallyfor the individual model. After the theoretical issues have been identified andanalyzed, the two methods are then used in practice on a pharma project withhigh risk. The practical valuation start out by choose the case company, whichhas been Genmab, as they have performed financially well over the past periodwith a great growth in their revenue. A specific pharma product in phase 1 withthe purpose of curing lung cancer has been chosen as the underlying asset forthe valuation. In relation to the estimation of the parameters, a strategicanalysis has been made to investigate factors that can affect the company andthose estimates. Thereafter, the valuation of pharma product has been estimatedto DKKm 4,46 by the rNPV method as well as DKKm 12,31 by the ROV model.Finally, the theoretical and practical issues are then discussed, where thisfocus on the theoretical issues in the form of whether it is best to have few,or many assumptions related to the method as well as the discussion of thenumber of scenarios. Further, the discussion also focusses on the influence ofsome of the parameters in the methods.

UddannelserCand.merc.fir Finansiering og Regnskab, (Kandidatuddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling
Antal sider121