Strategisk analyse samt værdiansættelse af Cimber Sterling A/S

Abstrakt

The main purpose of this report is to perform a strategic analysis, with focus on the future strategic options, and valuation of the Danish airline Cimber Sterling A/S. Cimber Sterling in its present form is the result of the transaction in the end of 2008, where Cimber bought a series of rights as well as routes, from the bankrupt company Sterling A/S, and the recent introduction on the stock market in December 2009. An introduction which did not go as planned, with 2 negative adjustments within 3 months to expected EBIT of 2009/10, and a 70 percent reduction in company value, as a result. Through a strategic analysis it is shown that Cimber Sterling A/S’ main strengths is the newly achieved risk diversity and the flexible air fleet, but also shows a company with a considerably financial risk. The opportunity for Cimber Sterling lies in the potential future increase in demand, while the extreme competition for market share is a real threat, especially due to the current financial crisis. The future strategic options for Cimber Sterling have been narrowed due to the poor financial performance since the stock introduction, which has put a big pressure on the normal cash flow, and forced the company to focus on optimization of the existing capacity. Based on the fundamental analysis and an analysis of the historic financial performance a valuation has been made. Based on the FCFF valuation model Cimber Sterling’s share price has been estimated to 5,48 DKK. This indicates that the share is underrated, but based on a sensitivity analysis it is shown that just small changes to the underlying assumptions such as the growth rate or WACC, causes big changes to the estimated price. Especially changes to the EBIT-margin, causes big fluctuations in the share price. Therefore the main conclusion of this thesis is not a bullet proof recommendation of the Cimber Sterling share, but more a recognition of the possibilities for the company in the future, if they can manage the current situation regarding to the financial crisis and drop in demand etc. So if Cimber Sterling can make the normal operations profitable, there is good potential in the company, but yet they need to show that it is possible to do this.