The purpose of this master thesis is to estimate the fair value of SAS shares per 15 March 2012 through a strategic financial analysis and valuation. SAS is a Scandinavian based airline with the parent company located in Stockholm. It was started by the Swedish, Danish and Norwegian governments and they remain owners of 50 % of the shares. The shares are listed in Oslo, Copenhagen and Stockholm. The company has through its 66 years long history experienced both growth and decay. It is currently in a severe period facing troubles maintaining the revenue level. Earnings are on an unacceptable level due to – amongst other factors - high costs compared to the industry. The strategic analysis is conducted through a PESTEL analysis, Porter’s Five Forces, Products’ Life Cycle Theory and an analysis of the internal resources and competencies. The result is summarized in a SWOT analysis, which gives an understanding of the opportunities and threats in the external environment that SAS operates in, and strengths and weaknesses in the internal environment in SAS. In brief the analysis shows that SAS is faced by a tough environment and it will not be the development in the external milieu, that alone will safe SAS. Amongst the main factors for this situation is the global financial crisis combined with a fierce competition amongst airlines in the industry. The intense competition is mostly based on price and customers show little loyalty. Many of the low cost carriers are performing well and are taking market shares and customers from SAS. To add fuel to the situation SAS’ cost level is substantially higher than the competitors, which is partly due to an old fleet with costly repairs and a high level of fuel usage. SAS is currently attempting to reduce the cost level through its strategy 4Excellence. The strategy aims to increase earnings by SEK 5 billion by the end of 2013. The historic financial analysis shows a company in a profound financial crisis. Sales have been declining substantially, however, stable in 2010 and 2011. The return on equity has been negative throughout the analysis period, and the return on invested capital has likewise been negative except for 2011. However, most of the key numbers despite being poor show signs of improvement. The actual valuation is performed through the residual income model. The result shows the share is undervalued as the model gives a result of SEK 82.8 against the trading price of SEK 9.35. In the end a sensitivity analysis is executed. The analysis shows that the share value is greatly sensitive to changes in the future sales growth level and the growth level in the terminal period. Furthermore the weighted average cost of capital highly influences the result. These values are objects for judgments and assessments.
|Uddannelser||Cand.merc.aud Regnskab og Revision, (Kandidatuddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling|