Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Danisco A/S

Michael Petersen

Studenteropgave: Kandidatafhandlinger

Abstrakt

This thesis concerns the valuation of Danisco A/S. It concerns whether or not the stock was traded at a fair price, when the shareholders accepted the bid from the American company Dupont A/S of 700 danish kroner for each share. I completed a strategically analysis of the business Danisco in the perspective and level of micro macro. I found that, they hold a strong position in their segments, and are either the market leader or second to that, with a portfolio of innovative products that can meet the challenging demand of the future. I also finished a financial analysis that stated a healthy core business, which has given the shareholders some fairly good returns over the last five years. The strategically and financial analysis was then used to budget the future of Danisco, as if it was to stay as a stand alone business. The result was that Danisco also in the future would be a healthy business, with some fairly nice key ratios, and would provide the shareholders with some added value and therefore some reasonable returns. The last Chapter was to use the budget, and transform it through economic models to a valuation of the firm. On the path to determine the value, I was to find out the weighted cost of capital for Danisco, and to do that I determined the risk of investing in Danisco. To establish the value of Danisco I used the economic models of DCF and EVA. Since it was impossible to find an exact comparison to Danisco, multiples were dropped as a valid valuation method. After the finding of the value I investigated the sensitivity of the result, by changing two parameters. One of the estimates I was changing, was the WACC, and the other was the terminal growth rate of the valuation models. The result was a fairly sensitivity in the value when changing these estimates, but my conclusion stands uncorrected. The thesis concludes, that the shareholders of Danisco were right to accept the bid from Dupont, as I found the share to be overstated by the market. Duponts was overbidding the price by 25 pct. relative to the market, but according to the thesis analysis it was overbid by 39,7 pct. This is a fairly good return, and the recommendation would be to accept the offer.

UddannelserCand.merc.fir Finansiering og Regnskab, (Kandidatuddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling
SprogDansk
Udgivelsesdato2011
Antal sider110