Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Dennis Breitowicz & Christian Søgaard

Studenteropgave: Kandidatafhandlinger

Abstrakt

The purpose of this thesis is to find out whether the stock price value of Vestas is overestimated or underestimatet compared to the actual market value at the stock exchange. To resolve this question we have made three steps to come up with an estimated value of the company. The first step has been to analyze the strategic basis for Vestas on the internal and external basis. The internal analysis shows, that Vestas has a strong value chain which supports the globalisation of the company, and a growth strategi which creates value for the investors. The external analysis shows, that the wind energy industry is a market with a high growth rate, which only seems to be ongoing supported by the politcal environment. Vestas is loosing market shares in this growth situation, but the company is still market leader, and even if it seems like the company will not be able to remain at this position, the future looks bright for Vestas as a strong supplier of windmills in the market. The second step has been to make an analysis of the financial capability historically. Vestas has in five years turned a negative return on invested capital into a positive return on invested capital, which is well above the weighted average cost of capital. This means that the company creates value for the investors. The analysis also shows, that Vestas has been able to achieve an EBIT-margin of 11 % in 2008, which is at the high end of the scale compared to the nearest competitors. Our strategic and financial analysis makes us belive, that Vestas can maintane this high levelled EBIT-margin in the long run. The third step has been to budget the financial statements in the light of the two first steps. The budgetted financial statements has led us to the future cash flows in Vestas. We use the future cash flows in the Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF), to make a valuation of the value of Vestas. The official stock price as of june 27. 2009 was 378. The DCF calculation resulted in an estimated stock price in the range of 378-673, and with the fact that Vestas compared to other competitive firms has high multiple values our assesment is, that the stock price of Vestas is relatively underestimated with a good potential to grow in the future.

UddannelserCand.merc.aud Regnskab og Revision, (Kandidatuddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling
SprogDansk
Udgivelsesdato2009
Antal sider144