Strategisk regnskabsanalyse & værdiansættelse af Carlsberg Group A/S

Abstrakt

The purpose of this master is to estimate the value of Carlsberg A/S stock price on the Danish stock exchange. Carlsberg is the 4th largest brewing company in the world and is operating in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia. The valuation is founded in a strategic study as well as an analysis of the historical financial performance. In the Strategic study we have used well known theoretical models such as PESTEL, Porter´s five forces, Boston model and it´s all summarized in a SWOT analysis which gives us an overview of Carlsberg´s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The Strategic study shows that Western Europe is facing a period of stagnation in the market growth which is related to the financial crises and the maturity of the market. In Eastern Europe and Asia Carlsberg has seen considerable growth in the markets and we estimate that the growth will continue on the long term. We also conclude that the brewing industry is affected by the consolidation among the biggest companies which has increased the competitive landscape, Carlsberg has benefited from this particularly in Russia. Further the study concludes that Carlsberg´s main strength is their knowledge in the brewing industry and their ability to promote their different brands. The analysis of Carlsberg´s historical financial performance shows a positive trend in their performance, and the markets in Eastern Europe and Asia are Stars which Carlsberg particularly will benefit from in the years to come. The valuation is executed through the DCF model which is founded on the combined analysis of the strategic study and financial performance. We estimate the share price on the 31th December 2009 to DKK 507 The estimated value is subject to a stess test of the underlying value drivers. The test shows clearly that the estimated value is sensitive in particular to changes in the discounting rate, wacc and growth rate in the terminal period.