Værdifastsættelse af H. Lundbeck A/S

Abstrakt

The object of this master's dissertation is to value the pharmaceutical company of H. Lundbeck A/S (Lundbeck) applying a fundamental analysis. The company is interesting from an analytical point of view, because it depends on its immaterial patent rights, and because its two largest sources of turnover, will be affected by the expiry of patents in year 2012 and 2014, respectively. The starting point of this dissertation is the company's Annual Report for 2009. The dissertation is divided into four phases, analysis of the historical development, budgeting, valuation and conclusion. As the dissertation is based on a fundamental analysis, the historical financial statements analysis has been enhanced by a strategic analysis, which involves an analysis both of the society which Lundbeck is part of, as well as the trade which the company is part of. In the strategic analysis, both the P.E.S.T. model and Michael Porter's FiveForces are employed to elucidate the social impacts and shed light on the trade, respectively. As to the valuation of the internal resources, the dissertation is based on Lundbeck's product portfolio and pipeline, as they are an outcome of Lundbeck's core competencies. The results of these reviews have been compiled in a SWOT analysis, which has been compared to the strategy selected by Lundbeck. In the financial statements analysis, the income statement and balance sheet are initially reformulated to remove transitory items, next an analysis has been made of the return on equity, based on the extended Du-Pont model. Based on this development, and the data found in the strategic analysis, the future cash flows are drawn up; based on the DCF model they show the value of the equity and the resulting derived price of shares. The dissertation reaches the result that the share is undervalued, as the computed share price at 4 March 2009 is DKK 149.8, compared to an actual share price of DKK 106.75.