Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg

Abstrakt

The objective of this thesis is to perform a strategic analysis and valuation of the Danish company Carlsberg A/S as of 2 March 2012, based on a three days' average. Furthermore, the purpose is to discover whether the shares are under- or overestimated at the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. This thesis is divided into a number of sections, the first of which contains a description of the structure of the thesis, an elaboration of the problem formulation and a description of the conditions and methods on which the thesis is based. This section is followed by a brief account of Carlsberg's products, markets and group structure. The second section offers a detailed analysis of Carlsberg's strategic positioning, including both the internal and external parts of the enterprise, based on Porter's Five Forces and the PESTEL analysis as well as other established models and theories. We identified that Carlsberg has a strong organization, which means that they are well positioned in several markets, including Northern and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia. Further, we noted that in Eastern Europe Carlsberg is market leader. The role of market leader in Eastern Europe has had a massive influence on Carlsberg's revenue, as this market has suffered the new Russian anti-beer policy, prompting increased duty on beer. However, globally Carlsberg have not only met challenges - they have also been positively influenced by the Northern and Western European cultures, which have a considerable consumption of beer, like also the Asians, who have become increasingly fascinated by Western brands such as Carlsberg. Therefore, we have gathered our sub-conclusions in a SWOT analysis, concluding that in spite of weaknesses and problems, Carlsberg is strongly positioned in the market. The third section of this thesis contains the analysis of Carlsberg's historic performance, measured by financial value drivers, through which we established that Carlsberg is highly influenced by foreign exchange fluctuations in Russian rubles and secondarily Chinese Yuan. Historically, disregarding foreign exchange fluctuations, Carlsberg have had high earnings from operating activities. We compared the analysis with the closest competitors and established that Carlsberg still have lost ground to recover, especially as regards return on invested capital, with the competitors' financial highlights being more impressive in general, either due to operating margin or rate of turnover. Fourth section explains the background and calculations of the valuation, based on our strategic analysis. We also calculated WACC and documented the preconditions hereof. Finally, we calculated the valuation of Carlsberg based on the DCF model and established that the value of the share amounts to DKK 565 against the actual average value of DKK 445. However, analysts should pay attention to the fact that the valuation is highly sensitive to the preconditions we applied in the use of the DCF model. Furthermore, the DCF calculation is supported by various multiple analyses, all pointing to the same value as DCF - if not higher - which results in our recommendation to the shareholders to keep their shares and purchase more.