Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af NKT Holding A/S

Abstrakt

The purpose of this masters thesis, is to estimate the price of the NKT Holding A/S stock, and compare it to the markets price to see if it is over- or underestimated, compared to the stock market. To find the answer to this problem, there must be made a number of analyses. The first analysis is the strategic analysis, where the company’s nonfinancial value drivers will be identified. This analysis is separated into an internal and an external analysis. The internal analysis focuses on the company’s resources and core competencies and how they are used. In the external part of the analysis, Porters five forces and the PEST model are used to analyze each business areas that are affected by different factors to identify each area’s nonfinancial value drivers. As a summery to the strategic analysis, all the results are listed in a SWOT analysis to get an overview and to divide them into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The analysis shows that the NKT group has many strengths and opportunities that give the companies potential to generate shareholder value, if they avoid the risks and eliminate the weaknesses. The next part of the thesis is an accounting analysis that shows the historical trend through a ratio analysis for the last five years. This analysis is also separated into two parts. The first part is the actual ratio analysis that starts, with decomposing the return on equity into its components: return on invested capital and the financial ratios. The return on invested capital ratio is then decomposed into the asset turnover ratio and the operating margin. The second part of the accounting analysis looks at the risk of the companies. First the operational risk is analyzed and then the financial risk. The accounting analysis shows that the NKT group has been affected by the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, but the ratios for 2010 shows that the group is recovering and emerges stronger from the crisis. The next part of the thesis is the budget that acts as a bridge between the fundamental analysis and the valuation sections of the thesis, by combining the results of the strategic and the accounting analysis into a budget that forecast the future. The budget is then used in the valuation of the company, in combination with the estimate of the weighted average cost of capital. The valuation is then subjected to a sensitivity analysis to see the effects of changes of the underlying estimates. The result of the valuation shows that the NKT group is underestimated, and that it is recommended to buy the NKT Holding A/S shares.