The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the share value of one DSV A/S share on the 22nd February 2012. DSV is originally a Danish based transport and logistics company founded in 1976. However it has mainly grown with organic growth and acquisitions of other companies and has therefore transformed into an international transporting company. The recent financial crisis has affected DSV considerably with decrease in revenue but DSV has been recovering well in the last three years, the company is sensitive to changes in the overall world economy especially in Europe because a high portion of their revenue is generated in Europe. To have a possibility to valuate DSV a strategic analysis was performed with a focus on internal and external factors. From the strategic analysis it can be assumed that DSV has a flexible business model with emphasis on the asset light model and their capability to adjust costs very fast. Regulations from the regulatory bodies in Europe can affect DSV in the near future with new legislation regarding environmental issues. Financial analysis followed the strategic analysis. All key financial drivers have been increasing from 2009 after the impact from the financial crisis. Two large acquisitions were finalized in 2006 and 2008 and the financial drivers in the years after were looked at, it looks like these acquisitions were successful. The strategic and financial analysis were used with the reformulated income statement and balance sheet to forecast the future net operating profit less adjusted tax and free cash flow. The valuation was done with the discounted cash flow model and then compared with valuation from selected multiples. The discounted cash flow model result was a share price of DKK 172.78, compared with the closing price of February 22nd 2012 the estimated share price is about 41% higher than the actual share price. This could indicate that the share of DSV is undervalued by investors and they should be recommended to buy DSV shares as a long-term investment.
|Uddannelser||Cand.merc.fsm Finance and Strategic Management, (Kandidatuddannelse) Afsluttende afhandling|