Værdiansættelse – kan kapitalstrukturen i Novo Nordisk A/S optimeres?

Abstrakt

This thesis serves the purpose of valuating Novo Nordisk A/S pr. 03.31.2017. Novo Nordisk A/S is market leader in developing, manufacturing and selling medicines within diabetes, obesity, haemophilia and growth disorders. Novo Nordisk A/S’ main competitors are Eli Lilly and Sanofi and those three companies dominates the market for diabetes, which can be described as an oligopoly, where Novo Nordisk A/S has 33 % market share. The strategic analysis is founded in the PESTLE-analysis, Porter Five analysis, Ansoff’s growth matrice and an analysis of the internal resources. The strategic analysis is summarized in a SWOT-analysis. On the macro level the overall risk for Novo is low, even though a political decision in USA concerning healthcare support could affect Novo on earnings. The demographic development is in Novo’s favour as more people are diagnosed with diabetes or obesity. Internally Novo Nordisk A/S has a strong pipeline and no major patent expirations, so they have a good opportunity to continue the strong earnings and hold their positions on the market, where the competition on prices are significant. The financial statement analysis is based on four years from 2013 – 2016. Novo Nordisk A/S have experienced a positive development in the profitability, measured on EBIT-margin, ROIC and turnover of invested capital. The increased profitability is primarily driven by increased revenue in the USA, where Novo has managed to increase sales prices in the period. The beta value is analysed thoroughly and calculated to 0.81 for the valuation with WACC on 6.7897. The valuation of Novo Nordisk A/S is calculates using both the discounted cash flow method and the residual income method. The valuation of Novo Nordisk A/S, based on the strategic analysis and financial statement analysis, is per 03.31.2017 DKK 384 per share, which corresponds to a market value of the equity of mDKK 972.368. The actual market value per 03.31.2017 was mDKK 608.969. Based on analysis and comparison with peers, the capital structure was changed, leveraging Novo with NIBD/EBITDA 0.1019x. This raised the values to the shareholders by mDKK 1,049 corresponding to 0.1 % increase. This small increase in value may not stand against the possible increase in dedicating more employees in finance department and overall focus in the organisation.