Technology Portfolio Alignment as an Indicator of Commercialisation: An Investigation of Fuel Cell Patenting

We are gradually exploring the limits and potential of patents as a source of information in plotting technological development and competitive insight. However, their value in predicting commercialisation and emerging technologies is an area where tools have yet to be fully developed. This paper introduces a statistically driven patent-based method that identifies the technological portfolios in industry players. The method is tested using the case of fuel cell technology development, a technology that despite a succession of failed predictions appears to be nearing commercial introduction. The close alignment between the technology portfolios of the firms developing fuel cell technology is identified as a precursor and indicator of commercialisation