TY - JOUR
T1 - Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy
AU - Duus, Henrik Johannsen
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used by a broader circle of firms.
AB - Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used by a broader circle of firms.
KW - Corporate strategy
KW - External analysis
KW - Futures research
KW - Innovation
KW - Multiple scenario methodology
KW - Organisational development
KW - Scenario planning
KW - Strategic forecasting
KW - Strategic scenarios
KW - Scenario construction
KW - Corporate strategy
KW - External analysis
KW - Futures research
KW - Innovation
KW - Multiple scenario methodology
KW - Organisational development
KW - Scenario planning
KW - Strategic forecasting
KW - Strategic scenarios
KW - Scenario construction
U2 - 10.1504/IJFIP.2016.078349
DO - 10.1504/IJFIP.2016.078349
M3 - Journal article
SN - 1740-2816
VL - 11
SP - 167
EP - 183
JO - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
JF - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
IS - 1/2/3
ER -