Projekt "Langfristige Planung und kurzfristige Optimierung des Elektrizitätssystems in Deutschland im europäischen Kontext" (LKD-EU) : Schlussbericht : Laufzeit des Vorhabens: 04/2016-03/2019

The consideration of uncertainties in the long-term scenario formation of the energy and electricity system represents a major challenge, especially against the background of increasing European integration. In addition to Germany, other European countries are also pushing ahead with extensive considerations on the conversion of their energy systems. The electricity sector in particular is subject to special international interactions due to close electrical intermeshing, advancing market integration, extensive considerations for joint capacity assurance and further increases in generation volumes from fluctuating renewable energies. However, increasing interdependencies with other European countries, especially neighboring countries, are increasing the uncertainty of developments in Germany, e.g. with regard to the supply of electricity and heat as well as the infrastructure, both for electricity and natural gas and possibly in the area of heat transport. The different national and in their different aspects uncertain politics in connection with the closer interlocking between energy systems lead in the context of the long-term view and analysis of the German energy system to extensive degrees of freedom. There is a need for methodological development to take into account the high complexity of the system and the progressive integration of European markets. Against this background, the aim of the LKD-EU research project was to record the relevant uncertainties and methodically reflect interactions in the short- and long-term analysis and to analyze their impact, in particular on the German energy system. A cross-sectoral approach was chosen in which the electricity sector was analyzed in connection with "neighboring" sectors, in particular the heating sector and the infrastructures (natural gas, heat, power-to-gas). In particular, the project analyzed the uncertainties arising from the interactions of national decisions in the European energy sector and quantify their impact on the German energy sector. A particular focus was on the medium- and long-term view (2035, 2050) taking into account short-term stochastic analyses. In addition, short-term issues were also taken into account in view of the increasing volatility of (RES) feed-in and the associated need for flexibility.