Individual Risk Tolerance and Herding Behaviors in Financial Forecasts

Jeppe Christoffersen, Simone Stæhr

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikel

Abstrakt

Financial analysts tend to demonstrate herding behaviour, which sometimes compromises accuracy. A number of explanations spanning rational economic logic, cognitive biases, and social forces have been suggested. Relying on an experimental setting where participants forecast future earnings from a rich information set, we posit and obtain support for individual risk tolerance (or lack thereof) as an explanatory variable for herding behaviours. Specifically, less risk tolerant individuals forecast with less boldness and instead issue forecasts in agreement with the consensus forecast. The results are argued to be at least partially a product of cognitive biases and an intuitive reaction to uncertainty.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEuropean Financial Management
Vol/bind25
Udgave nummer5
Sider (fra-til)1348-1377
Antal sider30
ISSN1354-7798
DOI
StatusUdgivet - nov. 2019

Bibliografisk note

Published online: 25. May 2019

Emneord

  • Boldness
  • Cognitive bias
  • Intuition
  • News asymmetry
  • Experiment

Citationsformater