Identifying Product Development Crises: The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics

Christopher Münzberger, Verena Stingl, Josef Oehmen, Joana Geraldi

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapportKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

Resumé

This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification of a project crisis is often difficult. Yet, to allow fast crisis response, timely identification is critical for successful crisis management. Adaptive heuristics are judgement strategies that can strive in circumstances of limited and ambiguous information. This article presents a theoretical proposition for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees, and Tallying, are well suited to support design practitioners to make robust inferences about the situation. The paper presents potential applications of these three heuristics and provides an outlook on further research on adaptive heuristics in design sciences.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelProceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17) : Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management
RedaktørerAnja Maier, Stanko Škec, Harrison Kim, Michael Kokkolaras, Josef Oehmen, Georges Fadel, Filippo Salustri, Mike Van der Loos
ForlagDesign Society
Publikationsdato2017
Sider190-198
StatusUdgivet - 2017
Udgivet eksterntJa
BegivenhedICED17: 21st International Conference on Engineering Design - Vancouver, Canada
Varighed: 21 aug. 201725 aug. 2017
http://iced17.org/

Konference

KonferenceICED17: 21st International Conference on Engineering Design
LandCanada
ByVancouver
Periode21/08/201725/08/2017
Internetadresse

Emneord

  • Decision making
  • Project management
  • Uncertainty
  • Crisis
  • Adaptive heuristics

Citer dette

Münzberger, C., Stingl, V., Oehmen, J., & Geraldi, J. (2017). Identifying Product Development Crises: The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics. I A. Maier, S. Škec, H. Kim, M. Kokkolaras, J. Oehmen, G. Fadel, F. Salustri, ... M. Van der Loos (red.), Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17): Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management (s. 190-198). Design Society.
Münzberger, Christopher ; Stingl, Verena ; Oehmen, Josef ; Geraldi, Joana . / Identifying Product Development Crises : The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17): Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management. red. / Anja Maier ; Stanko Škec ; Harrison Kim ; Michael Kokkolaras ; Josef Oehmen ; Georges Fadel ; Filippo Salustri ; Mike Van der Loos. Design Society, 2017. s. 190-198
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abstract = "This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification of a project crisis is often difficult. Yet, to allow fast crisis response, timely identification is critical for successful crisis management. Adaptive heuristics are judgement strategies that can strive in circumstances of limited and ambiguous information. This article presents a theoretical proposition for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees, and Tallying, are well suited to support design practitioners to make robust inferences about the situation. The paper presents potential applications of these three heuristics and provides an outlook on further research on adaptive heuristics in design sciences.",
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Münzberger, C, Stingl, V, Oehmen, J & Geraldi, J 2017, Identifying Product Development Crises: The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics. i A Maier, S Škec, H Kim, M Kokkolaras, J Oehmen, G Fadel, F Salustri & M Van der Loos (red), Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17): Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management. Design Society, s. 190-198, ICED17: 21st International Conference on Engineering Design, Vancouver, Canada, 21/08/2017.

Identifying Product Development Crises : The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics. / Münzberger, Christopher; Stingl, Verena; Oehmen, Josef; Geraldi, Joana .

Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17): Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management. red. / Anja Maier; Stanko Škec; Harrison Kim; Michael Kokkolaras; Josef Oehmen; Georges Fadel; Filippo Salustri; Mike Van der Loos. Design Society, 2017. s. 190-198.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapportKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

TY - GEN

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AU - Oehmen, Josef

AU - Geraldi, Joana

PY - 2017

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N2 - This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification of a project crisis is often difficult. Yet, to allow fast crisis response, timely identification is critical for successful crisis management. Adaptive heuristics are judgement strategies that can strive in circumstances of limited and ambiguous information. This article presents a theoretical proposition for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees, and Tallying, are well suited to support design practitioners to make robust inferences about the situation. The paper presents potential applications of these three heuristics and provides an outlook on further research on adaptive heuristics in design sciences.

AB - This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification of a project crisis is often difficult. Yet, to allow fast crisis response, timely identification is critical for successful crisis management. Adaptive heuristics are judgement strategies that can strive in circumstances of limited and ambiguous information. This article presents a theoretical proposition for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees, and Tallying, are well suited to support design practitioners to make robust inferences about the situation. The paper presents potential applications of these three heuristics and provides an outlook on further research on adaptive heuristics in design sciences.

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KW - Project management

KW - Uncertainty

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KW - Project management

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KW - Crisis

KW - Adaptive heuristics

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A2 - Kokkolaras, Michael

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A2 - Van der Loos, Mike

PB - Design Society

ER -

Münzberger C, Stingl V, Oehmen J, Geraldi J. Identifying Product Development Crises: The Potential of Adaptive Heuristics. I Maier A, Škec S, Kim H, Kokkolaras M, Oehmen J, Fadel G, Salustri F, Van der Loos M, red., Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17): Vol. 2: Design Processes. Design Organisation and Management. Design Society. 2017. s. 190-198