How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries

Oguzhan Cepni*, Michael P. Clements

*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Publikation: Working paperForskningpeer review

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Abstrakt

We consider whether inflation is a ‘global phenomenon’ for European emerging market economies, as has been claimed for advanced or high-income countries. We find that a global inflation factor accounts for more than a half of the variance in the national inflation rates, and show that forecasting models of national headline inflation rates that include global inflation factors generally produce more accurate path forecasts than Phillips Curve-type models, and models with local inflation factors. Our results are qualitatively unaffected by allowing for sparsity and non-linearity in the factor forecasting models.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
UdgivelsesstedFrederiksberg
UdgiverCopenhagen Business School [wp]
Antal sider61
StatusUdgivet - 2021
NavnWorking Paper / Department of Economics. Copenhagen Business School
Nummer08-2021

Emneord

  • Global inflation
  • Common factors
  • Forecasting
  • Variable selection

Citationsformater