TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows
T2 - What Can We Learn from Micro-level Analysis?
AU - Wilke, Ralf
N1 - Published online: 17 November 2017
PY - 2018/8
Y1 - 2018/8
N2 - Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level statistical duration analysis constitutes an interesting alternative to aggregate data-based forecasting. In particular, forecasts of up to six months ahead are surprisingly precise and are found to be more precise than considered time series forecasts.
AB - Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level statistical duration analysis constitutes an interesting alternative to aggregate data-based forecasting. In particular, forecasts of up to six months ahead are surprisingly precise and are found to be more precise than considered time series forecasts.
UR - https://sfx-45cbs.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/45cbs?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info:sid/sfxit.com:azlist&sfx.ignore_date_threshold=1&rft.object_id=954921388924&rft.object_portfolio_id=&svc.holdings=yes&svc.fulltext=yes
U2 - 10.1111/obes.12222
DO - 10.1111/obes.12222
M3 - Journal article
VL - 80
SP - 822
EP - 842
JO - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
JF - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
SN - 0305-9049
IS - 4
ER -