Epidemic Networks

This paper examines the spatial and temporal determinants of epidemic contagions among urban centers. Based on the observations of the time of the outbreak of the Black Death (1346-51) and the characteristics of social-trade networks in Mediterranean and European cities, we first document that the contagion happened along trade routes. Second, we find that the time of the spread of the disease can be explained by geographical and institutional variables typically considered in gravity models. Furthermore, an analysis based on network theory shows the relevance of diffusion centrality of urban centers during the spread of the contagion.