Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

Glenn W. Harrison, Jimmy Martínez-Correa, J. Todd Swarthout

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Abstrakt

We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftJournal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Vol/bind101
Sider (fra-til)128-140
ISSN0167-2681
DOI
StatusUdgivet - maj 2014

Emneord

  • Subjective probability elicitation
  • Binary lottery procedure
  • Experimental economics
  • Risk neutrality

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