Resumé
Originalsprog | Engelsk |
---|---|
Udgivelses sted | Atlanta, GA |
Udgiver | CEAR, Georgia State University |
Antal sider | 50 |
Status | Udgivet - 2012 |
Navn | Working paper / Center for Economic Analysis of Risk (CEAR) |
---|---|
Nummer | 2012-09 |
Emneord
- Subjective Probability Elicitation
- Binary Lottery Procedure
- Experimental Economies
- Risk Neutrality
Citer dette
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Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries. / Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd.
Atlanta, GA : CEAR, Georgia State University, 2012.Publikation: Working paper › Forskning
TY - UNPB
T1 - Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
AU - Harrison, Glenn W.
AU - Martínez-Correa, Jimmy
AU - Swarthout, J. Todd
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Harrison, Martínez-Correa and Swarthout [2013] found that the binary lottery procedure works robustly to induce risk neutrality when subjects are given one risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify.
AB - We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Harrison, Martínez-Correa and Swarthout [2013] found that the binary lottery procedure works robustly to induce risk neutrality when subjects are given one risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify.
KW - Subjective Probability Elicitation
KW - Binary Lottery Procedure
KW - Experimental Economies
KW - Risk Neutrality
KW - Subjective Probability Elicitation
KW - Binary Lottery Procedure
KW - Experimental Economies
KW - Risk Neutrality
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Working paper / Center for Economic Analysis of Risk (CEAR)
BT - Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
PB - CEAR, Georgia State University
CY - Atlanta, GA
ER -