Asymmetric Attention

Alexandre N. Kohlhas, Ansgar Walther

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review


We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations.
TidsskriftAmerican Economic Review
Udgave nummer9
Sider (fra-til)2879-2925
Antal sider47
StatusUdgivet - sep. 2021
Udgivet eksterntJa