Abstrakt
Our results challenge the traditional way we interpret empirical measures of risk premia, as a signicant part of the predictable component of excess returns is strongly correlated with predictability in survey forecast errors. Using survey forecasts of the federal funds rate to proxy for market expectations, we show that the predictable component of excess returns can not be attributed to risk premia in the fed funds futures market. We argue that the documented biases in futures forecasts of monetary policy, which were previously characterized as risk premia (Piazzesi and Swanson, 2008), are driven primarily by expectational errors.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Publikationsdato | 2013 |
| Antal sider | 12 |
| Status | Udgivet - 2013 |
| Begivenhed | European Economic Association & Econometric Society 2013 Parallel Meetings - Gothenburg, Sverige Varighed: 26 aug. 2013 → 30 aug. 2013 http://www.eea-esem.com/eea-esem/2013/ |
Konference
| Konference | European Economic Association & Econometric Society 2013 Parallel Meetings |
|---|---|
| Land/Område | Sverige |
| By | Gothenburg |
| Periode | 26/08/2013 → 30/08/2013 |
| Internetadresse |
Emneord
- Fed funds futures forecast
- Monetary policy
- Blue chip financial forecasts
- Risk premia
- Predictable excess returns
- Expectational errors